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Prediction for CME (2021-10-12T03:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-10-12T03:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17947/-1
CME Note: Very faint partial halo W in C2,C3 (front not seen in COR2A b/c of a large overlapping data gap from 2021-10-11T19:23Z to 2021-10-12T09:23Z). Source: eruption from AR 2882 at N16W30 seen in AIA 193/304 starting after 2021-10-12T02:03Z and associated with multiple higher B-class flares from this active region and an EUV wave seen in AIA 193. Arrival indicated by sharp increase in B_total, reaching 9.76 nT at 2021-10-16T01:40Z, accompanied by pileup and speed increase, in addition to field component rotation indicating potential flux rope and momentary temperature rise indicating potential CME arrival. Kp increased to 3 during the 2021-10-16T00:00Z-03:00Z synoptic period in response but decreased afterward. Field remained amplified for two days following arrival, indicating a complex L1 solar wind signature that included both a far-flank flux rope interaction and a subsequent high-speed stream arrival.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-10-16T00:09Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-10-16T18:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-10-12T17:41
Radial velocity (km/s): 288
Longitude (deg): 34W
Latitude (deg): 3S
Half-angular width (deg): 34

Notes: Low confidence as very large STEREO A imagery gap and likely a glancing blow at worst. 
Space weather advisor: CL

Lead Time: 46.30 hour(s)
Difference: -17.85 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2021-10-14T01:51Z

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